Analysis of air-conditioning industry development trend

Published: 01st March 2010
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2008 Frozen annual domestic air-conditioning manufacturing industry and retail markets have been subject to a number of negative factors: appreciation of the renminbi, the international market, especially the U.S. market decline, global temperatures drop sharply rising raw material prices, coupled with labor costs, transportation costs increase, air-conditioning manufacturing enterprises operating under enormous pressure; real estate market decline, the stock market slump, a long time, large-scale air-conditioning end-season rainfall not expected Er Zhi.



The State Information Center monitoring data show that a variety of unfavorable factors in the above together, the 2008 Frozen annual domestic retail market as a whole scale of 24.5 million units, with 26.3 million units during the same period last year decreased 9.31 percentage points, but China's current air-conditioning industry as a whole scale of production, the proportion of exports a variety of perspective, 24.5 million units of the size of the domestic retail market is still sufficient to support the overall development of the industry.



State Information Center, Director of Miss Yvonne market analysts believe that "Although the 08 frozen the annual domestic market declined slightly, but the overall scale is still to be maintained; the face of difficulties, business pressures, but the outstanding enterprises in terms of R & D capabilities, production size, market share, sales channels, construction and other aspects have been further strengthened, overall the industry remain solid. From the industry point of view, supporting the foundation of the whole industry, and there is not much change in Chinese air conditioner industry is still at a stage of sustainable development . "



From another perspective, in 2008 during the annual freezing of various unfavorable factors encountered has also become a test of production enterprises opportunity to respond to changes in the market, the National Information Center monitoring data indicate that the domestic retail market in 2008, the annual sales of frozen Ranking the top 5 Name brands are the domestic brands, the market share of 62.18 percent over the same period last year increased 4.28 percentage points, five major domestic brands in China has been supporting the 2 / 3 of market share, the whole industry more secure footing. 18 brands have been eliminated



The State Information Center monitoring data show that in key urban markets, frozen Brand of the Year 2008 out of the intensity was significantly higher than 07 cold years in the same market coverage, 2008, the number of cold in the overall brand from 07 years of 52 cold-reduced 08-year cold 34, 18 brands were ruthlessly eliminated. 34 brands, with a considerable competitive (sales share of more than 1%) of the brand has been reduced from 25 to 18; there are 16 brands sold less than 1% market share, which share the last nine brands Ranking sales volume and market share of just 0.8%. With very different, the share of Ranking the top 5 brands, sales and market share of more than 07 cold years Ranking the top 5 brands percentage points higher than 4.28, polarization is increasingly evident.



And the corresponding disappearance of a number of brands, brand concentration of 08 cold years have significantly improved. Monitoring data show that the cold 08 years ago 3,5,10,20,25 Ranking the number of sales of shares of different brands were 50.28%, 62.18%, 82.38%, 98.63% and 99.92%. Frozen with 07 compared to the year 08 the annual brand frozen concentrated trend reflects the high degree of concentration is more obvious, the top 10 brands obviously to squeeze out other brands in the living space, from the data analysis, Top Brands and 07 before the three-year cold phase Brand concentration increased more than 7.65 percentage points, ranking the top 5 brand concentration increased 4.28 percentage points. From the 08 cold years, to determine the actual situation, 09 years in the cold for more uncertainty there is, under the premise 08 years ago after the 20 brands in a number of brands would also have a choice for survival.



For the 08 cold years, raise the degree of brand concentration trends, the analysis of the national grid editor Lvsheng Hua said: "The main reason is the Top brand in the forefront of full use on the basis of brand has taken to expand capacity and improve the frequency and quantity of new product launch and expand sales channels, strengthen the installation of various combinations of service levels to expand the market space, brand concentration increase has also proved that these methods are effective. "



Situation from the Chinese and foreign brand competition point of view, 2008 is based on domestic brands are still frozen the annual sales volume, sales of share of over 70% of the advantage of the market leader. It is noteworthy that, foreign brands an anti-07 cold year in a downward direction, as a whole, Guiji, three aspects of wall than 07 years has increased. In this regard, Lv Shenghua analysis: "Foreign brands in 2008 were taken in the cold with a targeted product development and product promotion strategies, product launches, the number and contribution rate was significantly higher than last year, also higher than domestic brands. In addition, foreign brand the proportion of high-end products and price levels were significantly higher than those of domestic brands, sales of share to raise the ratio is basically to raise the ratio is higher than sales. "



According to the monitoring data analysis, 2008, Midea, Haier, Hisense, Ochs, Zhi Gao, Kelong, Changhong, LG and other brands volume market share, compared with a year ago have increased to some extent, thus obtained by the National Information Center awarded the "2008 Annual domestic market, Pioneer brand frozen" honor.



2008 Cold-year, Haier, Midea, Changhong new contribution rate of the product's performance excellent, was awarded the "2008 Best Product Innovation Award Frozen"; Zhi Gao air-conditioning in order to "quality leadership" is based on strengthening the upstream and downstream industry chain, domestic and foreign channels lay a solid basis for increasing the sales volume grew steadily won the "best market for the year 2008 to create a frozen Award"; Aux air-conditioning due to successful brand building, while the dealer implementation of the "good faith, win-win" and cooperative concept, the channel construction steadily, won the "2008 Best Marketing Innovation Award Frozen"; Midea, Haier, Kelon, Zhi Gao, Oaks responded positively to the government call for energy-saving air-conditioning products, emission reduction results are obvious, was awarded the "2008 Annual Energy-saving refrigeration reduction Contribution Award "; Haier, Midea, Hisense inverter air conditioner sales share to actively expand and upgrade the technological content of conversion products, was awarded the" 2008 Best inverter air conditioner frozen Award "; Changhong air-conditioning in the" Wenchuan Earthquake ", the pro-active Organization of human and material resources involved in disaster relief, big disaster obvious love, Changhong interpretation of a big disaster to the world before a sense of social responsibility and play the true nature of business, was awarded the "2008 Best Corporate Citizen Award for Frozen."



The average price increase in the proportion of high-end products to improve



2008 Frozen year, particularly from January 2008 onward, due to rising raw material prices, coupled with labor costs, transportation costs increase, the pressure is generally higher than the cost of manufacturing enterprises frozen the year 2007, in order to absorb the cost, production companies generally raised the mid to high product-mix, while taking advantage of new market opportunities for product prices to adjust accordingly, despite the price level from the distribution channel control various sorts of pressure, but an annual look at the entire refrigeration, air-conditioning as a whole the average price continued to maintain a steadily in posture.



State Information Center monitoring data show that the annual air-conditioning 2008 Refrigeration overall price level and focus of the category Wall air conditioner, cabinet air-conditioning chilled the annual average price, compared with 07 improved to varying degrees, air-conditioning the overall price level increased 8.07%, wall-mounted air-conditioning increased 4.06%, 13.97% increase cabinet air-conditioning, in the three groups the price comparison, the average price of cabinet air conditioners by 07 freeze year 5369 yuan / Taiwan, an increase of 08 frozen the year 6119 yuan / Taiwan, an increase of the most obvious.



In the market operations, the introduction of new production enterprises an important means of price adjustments, air-conditioning manufacturers to seize the change in consumer psychology, timely introduction includes environmental protection, energy conservation, health, mute and other products, manufacturing, and meet consumer consumer demand. That is why the 2008 freeze year, although for various reasons, the size of the domestic retail market has narrowed, but the proportion of high-end air-conditioning remains an upward trend and become the basis for supporting this year's overall sales.



State Information Center monitoring data show that 2008 year-end air-conditioning refrigeration air-conditioning of the total retail market sales, sales ratio in 2007 on an annual basis have frozen up, with more than 3,000 air-conditioning unit and dollar sales increased by 10.76 percentage , and 14.75 percentage points, more than 5,000 products were increased by 4.95 and 9.85 percentage points, more than 7,000 products were increased by 2.93 and 7.31 percentage points, more than 9,000 products were increased by 1.35 and 4.22 percentage points, and 07 frozen a larger proportion of the annual sales of 1600 - 2999 yuan price segment air-conditioning unit and dollar sales ratio fell 11.96, and 15.02 percentage points.



Miss analysts believe that a continuous increase in the proportion of high-end air-conditioning there are two main reasons: First, producers take the initiative to adjust the product mix continued to increase efforts, from the year 2007 began frozen, manufacturing companies are willing to raise the proportion of high-end air-conditioning, which most the limits of a single product to improve profit; second is the general increase in consumption levels and consumer demand changes, improve the purchasing power of consumers has also driven the demand for high-end air-conditioning.



Slowing growth in the international market continues to grow



From the past two years, data shows that growth in international markets, the overall slowdown in air-conditioning, domestic enterprises through product quality, expansion of overseas channels and so on intensive cultivation, the year 2008 in the overseas market is still frozen to achieve growth, but because the U.S. financial crisis affecting the global economy, an increase of retreated, due to a general increase in prices and exports growing faster than the growth in export volumes. According to customs statistics, total 2008 exports of frozen air conditioner for the year 32.83 million units, up 7%, an increase over the previous freezing was reduced by 8.6 percentage points, total exports amounted to 6.409 billion U.S. dollars, up 23.52 percent increase over last year reduced by 4 percentage points.



2008 frozen, China's total of more than 200 countries and regions, air-conditioning products exported. Countries and regions from the export situation, the total exports of more than 1 million units in the United States, Japan, Italy, Hong Kong, China, Argentina and India, six countries and regions, the export value 1.066 billion, respectively, 508 million, 344 million, 1.9 100 million, 195 million and 2.1 billion U.S. dollars. Among them, although the U.S. market by its domestic macroeconomic impact of imports from China air-conditioning products have a certain degree of decline, but still the size of 8 million units continue to maintain the status of the largest export market, accounting for China's air conditioner to 24.1% in the proportion of total exports.



And air-conditioning domestic market prices in line since the beginning of the year from the 08 frozen, air-conditioning export prices remained upward trend. In June 2008, air-conditioning the average export price of 215.3 U.S. dollars per unit, each of 192.9 U.S. dollars more than the same period in 2007 increased 11.6%. This point, from the export product mix has also been the reaction, 08 frozen years, split air conditioner ? 4000kcal / h (HS Code: 84,151,021) has been replaced by an independent window-type air-conditioning, exported 13.28 million units, becoming the largest export volume of machine type, accounting for 40% of the proportion of total exports.



From the business point of view, the United States, and Haier, Zhi Gao, Kelon, Aux 08 frozen eye-catching performance in the international market annual air-conditioning is in the lead, which was issued by the State Information Center, the "2008 Annual International market leader brand frozen"; America's No. 1 export performance won the "2008 Annual Air Conditioning Refrigeration export champion brand"; Haier exports its own brands first won the "2008 Annual Air Conditioning Refrigeration export its own brand champion" honors.



New air conditioning energy efficiency standards into the 09 cold years, the biggest suspense



Judging from the current production pattern analysis of the overall air-conditioning, refrigeration air-conditioning throughout the year two years 2008,2009 major policy adjustment should be a new air conditioner energy efficiency standards for the development and implementation schedule.



According to monitoring data from the State Information Center, 2008 frozen year, the domestic retail market size of 24.5 million units, according to the national energy efficiency standards for three indicators of demand in the overall market products, including frequency, fixed-frequency air-conditioning included in line with energy efficiency standards for more than three The product ratio was only 20.04 percent, or 4.9 million units, minus the inverter air conditioner if the 6.06% sales ratio, fixed-frequency air-conditioning energy efficiency standards in line with three of the sales volume is only 3.11 million units, nearly 19.6 million units up to fixed-frequency air-conditioning is not to three or more energy efficiency standards. If the 09 year freeze implemented three or more energy efficiency standards, in 2008 nearly 15 million units of inventory how to digest? A huge inventory pressure will force producers to increase efforts to end market competition, in addition to home appliance chain channels, the traditional reseller channel will also be a focus of 09 cold year in the competition. In addition, the result of 08 cold-year inventory balance the pressure is also possible to block air-conditioning in the 09 years to become a factor in further price increase.



Meanwhile, the implementation of the new energy efficiency standards will also 09 cold-air market in years, brought about the potential impact of product structure. Because the new energy efficiency standards for production fixed-frequency air-conditioning businesses, will mean higher production costs and product prices rise, consumers will choose to purchase this product has brought a certain degree of uncertainty. The face of energy efficiency policy adjustments, and many air conditioning companies plan ahead, have increased the frequency of new air-conditioning R & D and marketing, 2009 cold years, the inverter air conditioner market is expected to rise sharply.



Based on the 2008 Frozen analysis of the size of the annual total retail sales, combined with the current domestic retail sales of social consumer goods growth, combined with more than 13 million units air conditioning products inventory pressure release of factors into account, the year 2009 as a whole freezer the size of the domestic retail market in 2700 should be -2,850 million units, compared with the 2008 freeze year, sales growth of 10% - 16%, the biggest variable is the energy efficiency standards to improve the speed of structural adjustment post-production and the overall climate and environment changes.



From the global market perspective, the world economic slowdown, or even in trouble in some countries and regions, these factors impact on the export of a huge air-conditioning in 2009, expected 2009 annual air-conditioning refrigeration export situation may be more severe than in 2008.



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